commercialbusinessplanning
How do you project attendance at a new splash pad?
Quick answer
Use a market-area population analysis (households with kids under 12 within a 15-minute drive), factor in competition (each existing pad reduces capture rate ~15%), apply seasonal-day curves, and benchmark against comparable operations. Typical commercial pads see 100-400 visits/day on summer weekends, half that weekdays.
Splash pad attendance projections drive the entire pro forma, so getting them right matters. Standard methodology: define a primary market area of 15-minute drive radius, count households with children under 12 (US Census ACS data), apply a capture rate of 8%-15% for households visiting at least once per season, multiply by visit frequency (2-6 visits/season), then distribute across operating days using a seasonal curve weighted toward summer Saturdays. Adjust for competition — each existing splash pad within the market reduces capture rate by roughly 15%. Benchmark against comparable operations: typical municipal pads see 200-800 visits/day in peak season, while admission-based commercial pads see 100-400 weekend, 50-200 weekday. Stress-test projections under 15-25% downside (rainy summer, heat dome, or new competitor). Include sensitivity tables in the pro forma so lenders see the math.